Analysis of the Superposition Effect of Land Subsidence and Sea-Level Rise in the Tianjin Coastal Area and Its Emerging Risks

Abstract

Tianjin is a coastal city of China. However, the continuous rise of the relative sea-level has brought huge hidden danger to Tianjin’s economic and social development. The land subsidence is the most important factor that influences relative sea-level rise. By analyzing the current situation of subsidence in Tianjin through PS-InSAR, it was found that the subsidence rate of the southern plain of Tianjin is slowing down as a whole. In addition, Wuqing and Jinghai sedimentary areas as well as other several subsidence centers have been formed. By establishing a regular grid of land subsidence and ground water to construct a geo-weighted regression model (GWR), it was found that Wuqing sedimentary area as a whole is positively correlated with TCA. According to the relative sea-level change, it can be predicted that the natural coastline of Tianjin will recede by about 87 km2 in 20 years. Based on the research results above, this paper, by using machine-learning method (XGBoost), has evaluated Tianjin’s urban safety and analyzed high-risk areas and main contributing factors. Potential risks to urban safety brought about by relative sea-level rise have been analyzed, which will improve the resilience of coastal areas to disasters.