Analysis of the spatio-temporal change of social-ecological system coupling: A case study in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Abstract

There is an extremely complex interactive coupling relationship between social development and ecological protection, and how to achieve the coordinated development of the two is a hot topic in sustainable development research. This paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system of Social-Ecological System(SES) on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and then multi-scale analysis of the coupling coordination status and temporal-spatial evolution characteristics of the SES from 2003 to 2018 based on the coupling coordination degree model(CCDM), scissors difference, etc.The results show that: (1) the comprehensive evaluation index of social system shows an increasing trend, with a growth rate of 16.46% and a spatial distribution pattern of high in the northeast and low in the southwest; the ecosystem comprehensive evaluation index fluctuates down, with a decline rate of 32.80% and a spatial distribution pattern of low in the northwest and high in the southeast. (2) There are differences in the types of coordination among different scales: the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as a whole is mild disorders; on the provincial scale, the lowest coupling coordination degree is mild disorders in Tibet, followed by primary coordination in Sichuan and Qinghai, and Gansu, Yunnan, and Xinjiang are the highest, all of which are moderate coordination; on the county scale, the proportion of severe disorders, moderate disorders and primary coordination decreased by 7.03%, 2.63% and 7.20% respectively, while mild disorders and moderate coordination increased by 11.28% and 5.59% respectively. (3) The scissors difference rising in volatility, and the difference between the evolutionary trends of the two subsystems has increased. (4) The dynamic coupling degree is distributed in the interval of [45°, 90°], indicating that the SES of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is in a stage of common development, but the conflicts between the two are beginning to emerge. An in-depth analysis of the internal interaction process and the coupling coordination status of the SES can provide a theoretical basis and policy reference for sustainable development of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.