Analysis of the spatial-temporal components driving transmission of the severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in Shandong Province, China, 2016-2018.

Abstract

Existing models about the spatial-temporal distribution of the severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) entirely concentrate on aggregation, which provides limited knowledge to develop effective measures to control the epidemic of SFTS. This study aimed to identify the main spatial-temporal components and heterogeneity in different regions in Shandong Province, China. We applied the spatial-temporal multicomponent model to detect the spatial-temporal component values. A total of 2814 cases were reported from 2016 to 2018 in Shandong Province. The prevalence rate was 0.627 per 100,000, with an overall case fatality rate of 8.99%. SFTS cases were mostly clustered in central and eastern regions of Shandong Province. The total effect values of the autoregressive component, the spatiotemporal component and the endemic component were 0.586, 0.244 and 0.084, respectively, which demonstrated that the autoregressive component was the main factor driving the incidence of SFTS, followed by the spatiotemporal component. Gross domestic product per capita and weekly mean atmospheric pressure contributed to the incidence of SFTS with inverse effects. Obvious heterogeneity across regions for the autoregressive component and the spatiotemporal component was identified. In conclusion, the autoregressive and spatiotemporal components play a key role in driving the transmission of SFTS in Shandong Province. Based on the main component values, targeted measures should be formulated to control SFTS epidemics in different regions.