Analysis of the Spatial Effect of Capital Misallocation on Agricultural Output—Taking the Main Grain Producing Areas in Northeast China as an Example

Abstract

Increasing agricultural output by reducing capital misallocation is a capital-saving strategy, as it does not require the usage of additional inputs. Based on the panel data of 36 prefecture-level cities in Northeast China from 2011 to 2020, this paper uses the spatial Durbin model to test the impact of capital mismatch on agricultural output and its mechanisms. We found that capital misallocation is prevalent in prefecture-level cities, showing a spatial distribution characteristic of “north-south confrontation and central collapse”, with a significant spatial spillover effect. A one-unit increase in capital misallocation leads to a 16.00% decrease in local agricultural output and a 1.80% decrease in adjacent areas. However, with the optimization and upgrading of the agricultural industry and agricultural technology progress, the inhibitory effect of capital misallocation on the growth of agricultural output is constantly weakening. The above conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests. The conclusion of this paper provides policy inspiration for promoting the rational allocation of factors between cities and regions, coordinating regional coordinated development, and then promoting the sustainable growth of agricultural output.