Analysis of the relationships between topographic factors and landslide occurrence and their application to landslide susceptibility mapping: a case study of Mingchukur, Uzbekistan

Abstract

This paper uses a probability-based approach to study the spatial relationships between landslides and their causative factors in the Mingchukur area, Bostanlik districts of Tashkent, Uzbekistan. The approach is based on digital databases and incorporates methods including probability analysis, spatial pattern analysis, and interactive mapping. First, an object-oriented conceptual model for describing landslide events is proposed, and a combined database of landslides and environmental factors is constructed by integrating various databases within a unifying conceptual framework. The frequency ratio probability model and landslide occurrence data are linked for interactive, spatial evaluation of the relationships between landslides and their causative factors. In total, 15 factors were analyzed, divided into topography, hydrology, and geology categories. All analyzed factors were also divided into numerical and categorical types. Numerical factors are continuous and were evaluated according to their R2 values. A landslide susceptibility map was constructed based on conditioning factors and landslide occurrence data using the frequency ratio model. Finally, the map was validated and the accuracy showed the satisfactory value of 83.3%.