Abstract
Industrial structure is one of the main factors that determine energy consumption. Based on China’s energy consumption in 2015 and the goals in 13th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China (The 13th Five-Year Plan), this paper established an input–output fuzzy multi-objective optimization model to estimate the potential impacts of China’s industrial structure on energy consumption in 2015. Results showed that adjustments to industrial structure could save energy by 19% (1129.17 million ton standard coal equivalent (Mtce)). Second, China’s equipment manufacturing industry has a large potential to save energy. Third, the development of several high energy intensive and high carbon intensive sectors needs to be strictly controlled, including Sector 25 (electricity, heat production, and supply industry), Sector 11 (manufacture of paper and stationery, printing), and Sector 14 (non-metallic mineral products industry). Fourth, the territory industry in China has a great potential for energy saving, while its internal structure still needs to be upgraded. Finally, we provide policy suggestions that may be adopted to reduce energy consumption by adjusting China’s industrial structure.
Highlights
As the country with the largest amount of greenhouse gas emissions, China is facing enormous pressure to reduce the consumption of fossil energy
There is no current research focusing on the whole industrial structure adjustment of China based on energy consumption, which is a research gap that needs to be filled. Against this background, according to the goals set by the Chinese government [19], this paper used a fuzzy multi-objective optimization model based on the input–output model to assess the potential impacts of industrial structure on energy consumption in China in 2020
In the baseline as usual (BAU) scenario, it was supposed that the annual growth rate of GDP was 6.5%, which was the lowest goal set by the Chinese government in The 13th Five-Year Plan
Summary
As the country with the largest amount of greenhouse gas emissions, China is facing enormous pressure to reduce the consumption of fossil energy. Industrial structure is an important factor affecting energy consumption. Many researchers have studied the impact of industrial structure change in energy consumption. Fernández González [1] used the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method to analyze the factors behind the change in aggregate energy consumption in 27 European member states. These results showed that Mediterranean countries, especially former communist states, increased their energy consumption, most of them favored by structural change. Results showed that changes in the industrial sector could reduce the annual growth rates in energy demand. The results showed that the decline of a secondary industry could cause an emission reduction effect, but was at the expense of the gross domestic product whereas the development of a tertiary industry could boost the economy and help save energy
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