Abstract
BackgroundCOVID-19 vaccines have been approved and made available. While questions of vaccine allocation strategies have received significant attention, important questions remain regarding the potential impact of the vaccine given uncertainties regarding efficacy against transmission, availability, timing, and durability.MethodsWe adapted a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model to examine the potential impact on hospitalization and mortality assuming increasing rates of vaccine efficacy, coverage, and administration. We also evaluated the uncertainty of the vaccine to prevent infectiousness as well as the impact on outcomes based on the timing of distribution and the potential effects of waning immunity.FindingsIncreased vaccine efficacy against disease reduces hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19; however, the relative benefit of transmission blocking varied depending on the timing of vaccine distribution. Early in an outbreak, a vaccine that reduces transmission will be relatively more effective than one introduced later in the outbreak. In addition, earlier and accelerated implementation of a less effective vaccine is more impactful than later implementation of a more effective vaccine. These findings are magnified when considering the durability of the vaccine. Vaccination in the spring will be less impactful when immunity is less durable.InterpretationPolicy choices regarding non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social distancing and face mask use, will need to remain in place longer if the vaccine is less effective at reducing transmission or distributed slower. In addition, the stage of the local outbreak greatly impacts the overall effectiveness of the vaccine in a region and should be considered when allocating vaccines.FundingCenters for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) MInD-Healthcare Program (U01CK000589, 1U01CK000536), James S. McDonnell Foundation 21st Century Science Initiative Collaborative Award in Understanding Dynamic and Multiscale Systems, National Science Foundation (CNS-2027908), National Science Foundation Expeditions (CCF1917819), C3.ai Digital Transformation Institute (AWD1006615), and Google, LLC.
Highlights
IntroductionAs of February 24, 2021, there have been more than 112 million worldwide reported cases and 2¢4 million reported deaths due to COVID-19, which is caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.[1]
As of February 24, 2021, there have been more than 112 million worldwide reported cases and 2¢4 million reported deaths due to COVID-19, which is caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.[1] different control measures such as social distancing, face masks, and lockdowns have been partially effective in reducing transmission, a COVID-19 vaccine will likely be the most effective
While questions of who should get the vaccine first have received significant attention in the scientific literature and among ethicists and policy-makers,[2À4] important questions remain regarding how and where distribution should proceed under different levels of vaccine efficacy and availability, if a vaccine is more effective at reducing disease than infectiousness
Summary
As of February 24, 2021, there have been more than 112 million worldwide reported cases and 2¢4 million reported deaths due to COVID-19, which is caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.[1]. While questions of who should get the vaccine first have received significant attention in the scientific literature and among ethicists and policy-makers,[2À4] important questions remain regarding how and where distribution should proceed under different levels of vaccine efficacy and availability, if a vaccine is more effective at reducing disease than infectiousness. Still important questions remain regarding the potential impact of the vaccine given uncertainties regarding timing, durability, and ability to block transmission or reduce symptoms in case of inadequate primary response. While questions of vaccine allocation strategies have received significant attention, important questions remain regarding the potential impact of the vaccine given uncertainties regarding efficacy against transmission, availability, timing, and durability. Findings: Increased vaccine efficacy against disease reduces hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19; the relative benefit of transmission blocking varied depending on the timing of vaccine distribution.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
