Abstract
Chili is a category of 10 agricultural commodities and a staple in Indonesia. Price movements that go up and down or fluctuate are certainly a problem in themselves, where chili as a strategic commodity is one of the main determinants of the dynamics of national inflation. Regarding the policy of protecting farmers with restrictions on chili imports, chili stocks become more stable in the country so that local prices can compete with imported products. This observe uses secondary information obtained from the Bank Indonesia website to determine volatility and potential. The cause of this observe is related to the importance of volatility in large chili and cayenne pepper as well as the potential considering that they are the main commodities in agriculture and price projections in October 2023. This study uses quantitative descriptive analytical tools using ARIMA and GARCH time series models to predict time patterns and calculate potential with Location Quotient (LQ) analysis. This research shows volatility in Big Red Chili and Red Cayenne Chili and shows price forecasting that is experiencing a downtrend
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