Analysis of the Passenger Transportation in the City of Khujand and the Prospects for its Development.

Abstract

The article examines the state of transport services in the city of Khujand in the Republic of Tajikistan. Particular attention is paid to development of road public passenger routes.In the framework of the analysis of prospects for development of public transport, the authors suggest a method of analysis of future needs for passenger transportation based on processing array of data on volumes of past passenger flows and construction of trendlines using several mathematical models, comprising relational model. Prognostic model has been verified by comparing analytical and actual data available for the year of the study. Calculated trends of the growth in demand for passenger transportation have also been confirmed by expert assessment.The analysis resulted in forecasting growing demand on passenger transportation with public transport in the city of Khujand. The methods described are basic ones, and to better plan economic activity, more accurate forecasting tools are to be further used. However, convergence of the general trend towards accelerated increase in passenger transportation generated using different basic methods, allows building long-term strategy of development of the urban transport.