Analysis of The Occurrence of Extreme Events in The City of Rio de Janeiro/RJ

Abstract

Objective: To investigate the trends of extreme rainfall and temperature indices in the city of Rio de Janeiro, as measures to assess climate change. Theoretical benchmark: Extreme climatic events have been observed more frequently than has become a concern all over the world, so the investigation of trends in extreme precipitation and temperature indices makes it necessary to enter how this dynamic in climatic conditions affects the city of Rio de Janeiro. Method: The methodology for assessing climate change will be used from the indicators defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI) panel, but of the 27 indicators proposed by the panel, 12 indicators were used that were more adapted to the reality of the city of Rio de Janeiro, for the simulation of climate data, data from the stations of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and for the simulation of the indicators in the RClimdex software. Daily data of 53 years of 19 (six) stations obtained from the historical series of the period between 1970 and 2023 were analyzed, for the precipitation indices: PRCPTOT, R10, R20, R95p and R99p, and for the temperature indices: TX90p, TN90p, TMAXmean, TMINmean and DTR. Results and conclusion: The results indicate a trend of decreasing rainfall of low rainfall and a significant increase of extreme rainfall, the data also show a decrease of thermal amplitude, with the increase of minimum temperatures and a moderate decrease of maximum temperatures. Implications of the research: The study in question presents internationally validated indicators that demonstrate how extreme events are intensifying in the city of Rio de Janeiro. Originality/value: The data demonstrated in this research are of extreme importance as a source of research for future works that address this theme, besides serving as a subsidy to decision makers to propose adaptive measures to the territory, in the face of the intensification of extreme events in the city of Rio de Janeiro.