Analysis of the Nevada-Applied-Ecology-Group model of transuranic radionuclide transport and dose

Abstract

The authors analyze the model for estimating the dose from 239Pu developed for the Nevada Applied Ecology Group (NAEG) by using sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis. Sensitivity analysis results suggest that the inhalation pathway is the critical pathway for the organs receiving the highest dose. Soil concentration and the factors controlling air concentration are the most important parameters. The only organ whose dose is sensitive to parameters in the ingestion pathway is the GI tract. The inhalation pathway accounts for 100% of the dose to lung, upper respiratory tract and thoracic lymph nodes; and 95% of the dose to liver, bone, kidney and total body. The GI tract receives 99% of its dose via ingestion. Leafy vegetable ingestion accounts for 70% of the dose from the ingestion pathway regardless of organ, peeled vegetables 20%; accidental soil ingestion 5%; ingestion of beef liver 4%; beef muscle 1%. Only a handful model parameters control the dose for any one organ. The number of important parameters is usually less than 10. Uncertainty analysis indicates that choosing a uniform distribution for the input parameters produces a lognormal distribution of the dose. The ratio of the square root of the variance to the mean is three times greater for the doses than it is for the individual parameters. As found by the sensitivity analysis, the uncertainty analysis suggests that only a few parameters control the dose for each organ. All organs have similar distributions and variance to mean ratios except for the lymph nodes.