Analysis of the meteorological factors affecting the short-term increase in O3 concentrations in nine global cities during COVID-19

Abstract

Surface ozone (O3) is a major air pollutant around the world. This study investigated O3 concentrations in nine cities during the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown phases. A statistical model, named Generalized Additive Model (GAM), was also developed to assess different meteorological factors, estimate daily O3 release during COVID-19 lockdown and determine the relationship between the two. We found that: (1) Daily O3 significantly increased in all selected cities during the COVID-19 lockdown, presenting relative increases from −5.7% (in São Paulo) to 58.9% (in Guangzhou), with respect to the average value for the same period in the previous five years. (2) In the GAM model, the adjusted coefficient of determination (R2) ranged from 0.48 (Sao Paulo) to 0.84 (Rome), and it captured 51–85% of daily O3 variations. (3) Analyzing the expected O3 concentrations during the lockdown, using GAM fed by meteorological data, showed that O3 anomalies were dominantly controlled by meteorology. (4) The relevance of different meteorological variables depended on the cities. The positive O3 anomalies in Beijing, Wuhan, Guangzhou, and Delhi were mostly associated with low relative humidity and elevated maximum temperature. Low wind speed, elevated maximum temperature, and low relative humidity were the leading meteorological factors for O3 anomalies in London, Paris, and Rome. The two other cities had different leading factor combinations.