Analysis of the management of currency composition of foreign exchange reserves in Australia

Spillover effect of US dollar exchange rate on oil prices

Exchange Rates against the US Dollar

This paper studied the impact of inflation rates and US Dollar exchange rates in Indonesian stock market return volatility in the period of 2002-2012. Daily data of stock market return, inflation rates and US Dollar exchange rates were used to estimate the daily volatility of the stock return. The data of stock market price, inflation rates and US Dollar exchange rates were taken from Yahoo Finance, Indonesia statistics bureau and central bank of Indonesia, respectively. The result showed that both inflation rates and US Dollar exchange rates did not have a significant impact on the Indonesian stock market return volatility. Inflation rates contributed 0.03% change in daily stock market return volatility whereas a 1% appreciation of Rupiah contributed to a 0.0000001% change in daily stock market return volatility. This research finding was different from the result in Nigeria where Yaya’s & Shittu’s (2010) research had the same variables. Inflation rates and US Dollar exchange rates were to examine the impact on Nigeria stock market index return volatility.

This study aims to determine how the influence of the inflation rate and the interest rate of Bank Indonesia Certificates (SBI) on the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) with the US dollar exchange rate as a moderating variable on the Indonesia Stock Exchange 2007-2016. The data of this research consists of inflation rate reports, Bank Indonesia Certificate interest rate reports, US dollar exchange rate reports and reports on the Composite Stock Price Index for 120 (one hundred and twenty) months, starting from 2007 to 2016. Methods The research used in this research is associative research with quantitative data analysis. Data calculation was performed by using multiple regression analysis of the relationship, t test, F test and the coefficient of determination R2. Meanwhile, to test the moderating variable using the interaction test. The inflation rate variable (X1) and the interest rate for Bank Indonesia Certificates (SBI) (X2) with the US dollar exchange rate (X3) as the moderating variable simultaneously have a positive and insignificant effect on the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) (Y) on the Stock Exchange. Indonesia 2007-2016. The coefficient of determination of 0.596065 means it is known that the influence of the inflation rate variable (X1) and the interest rate for Bank Indonesia Certificate (SBI) (X2) with the US dollar exchange rate (Z) as the moderating variable is 59.61% while the rest 40.39% is explained by other variables that are not explained and examined in this study. Keywords: Inflation Rate, Bank Indonesia Certificate Interest Rate, US Dollar Exchange Rate and Composite Stock Price Index

International trade is an important aspect of a country's economy. International trade is the exchange of goods, services, or other factors of production across national borders. One example of international trade is exports and imports. Export and import activities have a close relationship with demand and supply. In this study, we will examine one of the important aspects of international trade, namely imports. Indonesia, as a country that has a wide coastline and a large water area, still needs to import salt from other countries to meet the salt needs in Indonesia itself. Therefore, research will be conducted on salt imports in Indonesia as influenced by Gross Domestic Product, US Dollar Exchange Rate, and Money Supply. In this study, there is a period of twenty years, from 2003 to 2022. The number of observations in this study is eighty because there are four variables with a research data period of twenty years. The objectives of this study are 1) to analyze the effect of GDP, the US Dollar Exchange Rate, and the Amount of Money in Circulation simultaneously on Salt imports in Indonesia in 2003–2022, 2) to analyze the effect of GDP, the US Dollar Exchange Rate, and the Amount of Money in Circulation partially on Salt imports in Indonesia in 2003–2022, and 3) to find out the variables that have the most dominant influence on Salt Imports in Indonesia in 2003–2022. The results of this study show that GDP and the amount of money in circulation have a positive effect on salt imports in Indonesia in 2003–2022, and the US dollar exchange rate has a negative effect on salt imports in Indonesia. Gross Domestic Product has the most dominant influence on the Salt Import variable, among other variables.

ABSTRACTThis article examines the nonlinear Granger causality and time-varying influence between crude oil prices and the US dollar (USD) exchange rate using the Hiemstra and Jones (HP) test, the Diks and Panchenko (DP) test and the time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression model. By applying the iterated cumulative sums of squares (ICSS) algorithm and the DCC-GARCH model, the effects of structural breaks in volatility of the two markets are also investigated. The empirical analysis indicates that, first, crude oil prices are the nonlinear Granger-cause of the USD exchange rate, but not vice versa. Second, the USD exchange rate exerts a stronger and more stable negative influence on crude oil prices in the short term, and the influence gradually weakens after 2012. Finally, ignoring structural breaks can increase the negative volatility correlation between the oil and USD exchange rate markets, which is particularly remarkable during the financial crisis.

Oil price and US dollar exchange rate: Change detection of bi-directional causal impact

US dollar exchange rate and food price dependence: Implications for portfolio risk management

Multifractal detrending moving average analysis on the US Dollar exchange rates

This study was aimed to determine the effects of SBI interest rate and Rupiah to US Dollar exchange rate on the stock prices of pharmaceutical companies in Jakarta Stock Exchange . The hypothesis was there were SBI interest rate (X1) and Rupiah to US Dollar exchange rate (X2) were suspected to have significant effect on the stock prices (Y) of Domestic and Foreign Investments pharmaceutical companies in Jakarta Stock Exchange . This study used Multiple Linear Regression Analysis and Multiple Correlation. The hypothesis was examined by F statistic test (Anova) and t statistic test. The result of data analysis showed that SBI interest rate (X1) and Rupiah to US Dollar exchange rate (X2) had simultaneous significant effect on the stock prices (Y) of Domestic and Foreign Investments pharmaceutical companies. The stock prices of Domestic and Foreign Investments pharmaceutical companies in Jakarta Stock Exchange were affected by the independent variables, which were SBI interest rate and Rupiah to US Dollar exchange rate, by 56,9% in domestic investment pharmaceutical companies and 65,60% in foreign investment pharmaceutical companies. The rest was explained by other variables such as company performance, inflation, political factor, etc.. Multiple regression equation didn’t guarantee wasn’t feasible for predicting future stock prices because not all regression coefficients significantly affected the stock prices of Domestic and Foreign Investments pharmaceutical companies in Jakarta Stock Exchange.

This study aims to determine the direct and indirect effects between the variables that are the object of research, namely the US Dollar exchange rate, foreign direct investment, and the trade balance in Indonesia. The data used is secondary data for the period 2000-2019. The data analysis technique used is path analysis with the help of the SPSS 27.00 program. Based on the results of the analysis of the variable US dollar exchange rate which has a negative effect on foreign direct investment, the US dollar exchange rate has a positive effect on the trade balance and foreign direct investment does not affect the trade balance. The US Dollar exchange rate has no indirect effect on the trade balance through foreign direct investment in Indonesia from 2000-2019.

Gold is a profitable investment from other types of investment. The price of gold in Indonesia increases every year. This is caused by several factors, namely US Dollar exchange rate, deposit interest rate, inflation, GDP per capita, and gold production. The Data used is time series data from 1990 – 2020 which are from Bank Indonesia, Kementerian Perdagangan, BPS Indonesia dan Gold Price. The research method is multiple linear regression. The result showed by partial test (t-test) that US Dollar exchange rate has a negative effect not significant on the price of gold, deposit interest rate has a significant negative effect on the price of gold, inflation has a positive effect not significant on the price of gold, GDP per capita has a significant positive effect on the price of gold, and the production of gold has a significant positive effect on the price of gold. For F-test US Dollar exchange rate, deposit interest rate, inflation, GDP per capita, and gold production has a significant effect on the price of gold. The Coefficient of Determination (R2) can be said that variance price of gold is 97,4% explained by US Dollar exchange rate, deposit interest rate, inflation, GDP per capita, gold production and the remaining is 2,6% explained by the other variables outside the research model such as Indonesia Composite Index (ICI), World Crude Oil Prices and the others.

The high demand for coal provides an attractive market prospect for Indonesian coal exporters. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of the Amount of Coal Production, US Dollar Exchange Rate, and Domestic Demand for Coal simultaneously and partially on the Total Indonesian Coal Exports in 2000-2020, and to find out the variables that had a dominant influence on the Total Indonesian Coal Exports in 2000. -2020. This study uses quantitative data in the form of secondary data. Data was collected through non-participant observation methods, namely from books, articles, journals, and reports from related sources or agencies. The analysis technique used is multiple linear regression using time series data from 2000–2020. The results showed that the variables of the amount of production, the US dollar exchange rate, and domestic demand simultaneously had a positive effect on the number of coal exports. Partially the amount of production, the US dollar exchange rate, and domestic demand have a positive effect on the number of coal exports. The variable amount of production has a dominant influence on Indonesian Coal Exports compared to other independent variables, namely the US Dollar Exchange Rate and Domestic Demand.

Gold is a profitable investment from other types of investment. The price of gold in Indonesia increases every year. This is caused by several factors, namely US Dollar exchange rate, deposit interest rate, inflation, GDP per capita, and gold production. The Data used is time series data from 1990 – 2020 which are from Bank Indonesia, Kementerian Perdagangan, BPS Indonesia dan Gold Price. The research method is multiple linear regression. The result showed by partial test (t-test) that US Dollar exchange rate has a negative effect not significant on the price of gold, deposit interest rate has a significant negative effect on the price of gold, inflation has a positive effect not significant on the price of gold, GDP per capita has a significant positive effect on the price of gold, and the production of gold has a significant positive effect on the price of gold. For F-test US Dollar exchange rate, deposit interest rate, inflation, GDP per capita, and gold production has a significant effect on the price of gold. The Coefficient of Determination (R2) can be said that variance price of gold is 97,4% explained by US Dollar exchange rate, deposit interest rate, inflation, GDP per capita, gold production and the remaining is 2,6% explained by the other variables outside the research model such as Indonesia Composite Index (ICI), World Crude Oil Prices and the others.

This study examines volatility dynamics of oil prices and the US dollar exchange rate using univariate and bivariate GARCH models using data from January 2, 2000 to December 31, 2015. The modified iterative cumulative sum of square (ICSS) algorithm is employed to identify structural breaks in the variance of the two return series. I find no evidence of volatility transmission between oil prices and the US dollar exchange rate if structural breaks are ignored in the model. However, after accounting for structural breaks in variance in the bivariate GARCH model, I find significant volatility transmission between oil prices and the US dollar exchange rate. I also show that dynamic risk minimizing hedge ratios substantially change when breaks are incorporated in the bivariate GARCH model.