Analysis of the long-term solar potential for electricity generation in Qatar

Abstract

This paper presents and analyzes Qatar's long-term solar resource potential to assess the power generation prospects of diverse solar plants in the country. Solar resource potential is obtained by applying kriging techniques to satellite-derived data to produce maps of monthly and yearly averages of global horizontal and direct normal irradiation. This analysis is based on eleven years of hourly satellite-derived solar radiation data calculated through a modified version of the Heliosat-3 model, where the satellite estimations have been improved and adapted to site using bias removal methods through a comparison with ground radiometric measurements. Solar resource data are then used in combination with local meteorological data as input to the System Advisor Model (SAM) in TMY3 format to simulate the solar plant operational prospects of various concentrating solar systems (CSP) and photovoltaic (PV) reference plants over eleven years. The ensuing simulation results show that parabolic troughs, molten salt tower plant with large thermal storage systems, and large grid-connected PV systems offer the best solutions in terms of interannual variability and long-term stability of the electricity produced.