Abstract
The majority of central Europe has a transitional climate type as a result of interactions between maritime and continental climates. This study focuses on the appearance and severity of drought in continental Croatia, which is part of the transitional climate area. It is situated between 15° E and 19° E. The altitude declines from west (167 m a.s.l) to east (88 m a.s.l.). The time period analysed is 1981–2018. Air temperature and precipitation data series from 13 meteorological stations were analysed. The analysis was done on an annual basis to define the spatio-temporal variability in air temperature and precipitation and their impact on drought episodes using the standardised evapotranspiration precipitation index. Different statistical methods (e.g., the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test and agglomerative hierarchical clustering) were used to examine the trend homogeneity of the analysed region. The analysis indicated inhomogeneity across the study area in terms of what significantly impacted the occurrence and severity of droughts. Drought occurrence is influenced more strongly by increasing trends in air temperature as compared with increasing or decreasing precipitation trends. The probability of severe drought occurrence was estimated using a copula function, and the results demonstrated that areas with higher precipitation could be more exposed to drought. Furthermore, the results demonstrated the impacts of specific regional characteristics on drought occurrence, severity, and duration, which indicates that small-scale research on droughts is more reliable.
Highlights
One of the main characteristics of climate change is a higher frequency of extreme hydrological events, such as floods and droughts
The probability of severe drought occurrence was estimated using a copula function, and the results demonstrated that areas with higher precipitation could be more exposed to drought
The results showed consistent precipitation behaviour on an annual basis
Summary
One of the main characteristics of climate change is a higher frequency of extreme hydrological events, such as floods and droughts. Many papers have been published analysing changes in the hydrological cycle and predictions of its future impact on ecological, geomorphological, and economic processes. In particular, have significant consequences on the hydrological cycle and availability of water resources. This can lead to changes in ground water recharge and water availability, modification of fluvial regimes, and an increased risk of floods [2]. The 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report stressed that very frequent regional and sub-regional variabilities in hydrological extremes require further investigation [4]
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