Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Power Demand in Beijing Based on the LMDI Model

Abstract

Since the reform and opening-up, under the new economic situation and policy, the rapid growth of power demand in Beijing is threatening the sustainable development of China’s economy and environment. To recognize the driving factors of electricity consumption growth and offer policy implications, based on the data of electricity consumption, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the resident population in Beijing from 1990 to 2021, this research used the Kaya-equation and logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) model to decompose the growth of power demand in Beijing into the quantitative contribution of each driving factor from the perspective of industrial electricity consumption and residential electricity consumption. The results of the decomposition analysis show that, as far as industrial electricity consumption is concerned, the contribution rates of economic growth, electricity consumption intensity and output value structure to industrial electricity growth are 234.26%, −109.01% and −25.25%, respectively, which shows that economic growth is the primary driving force promoting the growth of industrial electricity demand. Power consumption intensity is the main reason for restraining the growth of industrial power demand, the growth rate is sliding and the contribution of the industrial structure is relatively small; as far as residential power consumption is concerned, the contribution rates of per capita power consumption and population size to residential power growth are 68.13% and 31.87%, respectively, which indicates that per capita power consumption is the main factor promoting the growth of residential power demand, followed by the total population. The study results show that the consumption of electric power would increase if Beijing’s economy and urbanization keep developing, and optimizing the industry structure, improving the efficiency of electric energy utilization and adopting clean power energy are the main approaches to making Beijing’s consumption of electric power decrease.