Analysis of the infection time from a Potential H7N9 Pandemic Outbreak

Abstract

Avian influenza viruses have been affecting human populations for a long time since the outbreak in the year 1580 as the first recorded in history. Since then, other mutations and reassortments of the influenza viruses (e.g., H1N1, H3N2) have emerged causing pandemics. Recent emergence of H7N9 influenza virus in China resulted in 1307 laboratory-confirmed cases of human infections causing 489 deaths (37.4% fatality rate). Researchers have developed early estimates of some of the epidemiological parameters to characterize H7N9 virus in China. In this research we examine the distribution that characterizes the time to infection from a potential H7N9 influenza pandemic outbreak using results from an agent-based (AB) simulation model. The AB model replicates the dynamics of contacts between susceptibles an infected individuals. We considered some of the common continuous probability distributions and conclude, based on the negative log-likelihood, that the lognormal distribution provides a good t to characterize the time to be infected.