Analysis of the incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2022 based on the age-period-cohort model

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the trend of incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer and estimate its age-period-cohort effect in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2022. Methods: The Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the trend of incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer and calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) based on the data on thyroid cancer from 2012 to 2022. The age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the age-effect, time-effect and cohort-effect of thyroid cancer risk in the population aged over 20 years. Results: From 2012 to 2022, the incidence of thyroid cancer in Shandong province showed a significant upward trend, with an AAPC of 21.68% (95%CI: 19.14%-24.27%, P<0.001). The incidence of females was higher than that of males, and the incidence of urban areas was higher than that of rural areas. The trend of thyroid cancer mortality was relatively stable with an AAPC of -3.04% (95%CI:-8.81%-3.09%, P=0.323). The age effect of incidence increased with age before 60 years old and decreased with age after 60 years old. The incidence peaked in the age group of 55-59. The period effect increased with time. The cohort effect showed that the cohort born before 1957 had a downward trend over time, while the cohort born after 1957 had an upward trend. Conclusion: The incidence of thyroid cancer in Shandong shows a rising trend from 2012 to 2022. Age is an important factor affecting the risk of thyroid cancer. The mortality of thyroid cancer remains stable.