Analysis of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the drinking milk supply chain in Austria by means of a business process modelling and System Dynamics approach

Abstract

Abstract Dairy farming is an important branch of agricultural production for the supply of the Austrian population with domestic food. This paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Austrian drinking milk supply chain. For this purpose, a tripartite approach was chosen consisting of a process description using Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN), a qualitative System Dynamics analysis with a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD), and the use case of the COVID-19 pandemic in the year 2020 in Austria. The results show that the drinking milk supply chain is complex and consists of many individual process steps. However, the number of locations that are passed through during drinking milk production is rather small. The CLD revealed that reinforcing feedback loops occur in the provision of packaging material and the availability of dairy staff. Analysis of the use case showed that the system of dairy production in Austria is stable in the tested scenario, and that the supply chains preserved their function also during the pandemic. Dairies with diverse product ranges were able to react more easily to the massively changed demand situation. The insights gained by this research may be used to increase the resilience of the drinking milk supply chain. Furthermore, the methodological approach can be transferred and used to analyse the supply chains of other foods.