Analysis of the impact of public health emergencies on the dry bulk shipping market

Abstract

A structural vector autoregressive model and spillover index analysis based on generalized prediction error variance decomposition were used to explore the impact of public health emergencies on the dry bulk shipping market and provide suggestions for addressing the impact of public health emergencies. Moreover, the risk fluctuation and spillover of the dry bulk shipping market during public health emergencies were analyzed to understand the ways in which public health emergencies impact the dry bulk shipping market and to quantify the impact intensity. In related studies, the influence of the international crude oil price index and dry bulk ship port berthing volume were also considered. The results show that considering the immediate impact, the increase of newly confirmed cases of COVID-19 has a significant impact on the dry bulk shipping market, which lasts for more than 3 weeks and is always a negative shock. Different types of public health emergencies have different effects on the dry bulk shipping segmented shipping market. Dry bulk shipping companies should fully understand the development of public health emergencies, make full use of risk aversion forecasting tools in financial markets and make deployments for different situations.