Analysis of the impact of high-speed rail on the spatio-temporal distribution of residential population and industrial structure

Abstract

With the development of high-speed rail, the spatiotemporal distance among regions has been shortened. However, the research on the spatiotemporal distribution and correlation of resident population and industrial structure caused by the opening of high-speed railway is relatively few. This study is aimed to explore the impact of high-speed rail on resident population and industrial structure, as well as the spatiotemporal agglomeration and evolution trend. The spatial-temporal distribution of the resident population, industrial structure, and the influence of high-speed rail was studied using panel data from 31 Chinese provinces from 2006 to 2018 using spatial autocorrelation analysis, standard deviation ellipse method, and DID model. The experimental results indicate that: (1) The resident population shows a significant positive spatial autocorrelation, while the industrial structure is vice versa. (2) The resident population and industrial structure are primarily centralized in the eastern and central areas, showing a “northeast-southwest” spatial distribution pattern. (3) High-speed rail and the resident population are negatively correlated, and there is heterogeneity. Although there is an association between high-speed rail and industrial structure that is positive, there is also a clear regional variability. This study contributes to providing the corresponding theoretical support and basis for the high-speed rail line planning in different regions and the relevant departments to formulate effective economic policies.