Analysis of the impact of epidemic situation on total electricity consumption of the United States under the prediction scenario

Abstract

The outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic has led to a decline in electricity consumption in the United States, the world’s second largest consumer of electricity. Based on the monthly data of the United States from August 2015 to July 2020, this paper uses the ARIMA model and the ARIMA-BP model to forecast the power consumption of the United States in the next 17 months. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is 5.6% and 4.5% respectively. It shows that the prediction results have high reliability. The results of prediction research will provide a scientific basis for the normal adjustment of electricity supply and demand in the United States, and the method used in this study can be used as a reference for the study of electricity consumption in other countries.