Abstract
Climate change has become one of the major threats to global security. On the impact of climate change on national vulnerability, the researchers firstly select relevant factors and data and analyze the principal components to determine the weight of climate change on vulnerability so as to analyze the impact of climate change on national vulnerability. Secondly, based on the influencing factors, we obtain the national vulnerability score through the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, delineate the impact scope according to the score, and predict climate change by means of regression analysis and time series analysis. Finally, according to the characteristics of cities and continents, the model is revised, a PSR model and a cluster analysis model are established, and the prediction accuracy is improved.
Highlights
Climate change is one of the most universal global threats to peace and security in the 21st century. e damage, loss, and impact caused by various natural disasters worldwide are becoming serious. e research on vulnerability, adaptability, and resilience has become the focus of attention in the fields of global change, disaster prevention and mitigation, and sustainable development
In order to measure national vulnerability reasonably and to analyze the direct and indirect impact of climate change on vulnerability, we firstly create an index system for measuring national vulnerability, and a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is established based on the analysis of the principal components
Combined with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, we study national interventions to mitigate the risks posed by climate change, while other conditions remain the same [18]
Summary
Climate change is one of the most universal global threats to peace and security in the 21st century. e damage, loss, and impact caused by various natural disasters worldwide are becoming serious. e research on vulnerability, adaptability, and resilience has become the focus of attention in the fields of global change, disaster prevention and mitigation, and sustainable development. Is paper argues that climate change is a “threat multiplier” which interacts with existing pressures, such as social conflict, economic inequality, mass migration, or competition for resources. E state is a highly socioeconomically complex integrated system It interacts with the natural environment and the social environment. Physical vulnerability refers to the risk of anthropogenic impacts on the climate, and other factors such as natural disasters and human-induced pollution. Economic vulnerability refers to the perception of internal and external threats to the economy. Social vulnerability refers to the potential disaster factors, the degree of damage, and the coping capacity of a social group, organization, or country exposed to disaster impact. Political vulnerability refers to the territorial integrity, core values, and internal unity which are exposed to internal and external threats. E data in this paper come from Question E of the 2018 American College Students Mathematical Modeling Competition and the statistics of the World Bank
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