Analysis of the Impact of Cereal Product Import-Export on GDP in Romania

Abstract

Imports and exports have a major influence on Gross Domestic Product. In this study it was made a non-linear regression model based on the Cobb-Douglas function. Production function is used in many economic researches. This function captures well the relationship between GDP as a dependent variable and imports and exports of wood product as independent variables. Imports and exports of wood products analyzed in this paper are the sum of the following types of wood products: wood fuel, industrial coniferous round wood, industrial hardwood, charcoal, wood waste, coniferous timber and hardwood timber, veneer sheets, plywood, chipboard, OSB, paper. The statistical calculation was made using the R language in the RStudio program. The interval analyzed is between 1999 and 2016. During this range, the period of 2008-2009, a period of economic crisis, with a negative impact on imports of wood, was highlighted. The function has the sum of indicators higher than 1, so it can be concluded that imports and exports of wood mass accelerate Romania's GDP growth. Taking into account the Cobb-Douglas function obtained, it can be concluded that with a 1% increase in imports of wood products, GDP will increase by 0.747%, and with a 1% increase in exports of wood products, the value of GDP will increase by 0.4743%. The developed model highlights the importance of the forestry sector and its link with a macroeconomic indicator that highlights the state of the economy.