Abstract
Objective of the study was to forecast the scale of the outbreak that would emerge after arrival of persons infected with Ebola virus into the Russian Federation. Initial data for the prediction were obtained from retrospective analysis of hemorrhagic Ebola fever outbreaks registered within the period of 1976-2014, and the spread of the virus in the Republic of Guinea and Mali in 2014. Delays in the identification of a patient and the lack of compliance with control measures may result in secondary disease in 3-5 persons from among the members of the family and the medical staff. Timely diagnostics and strict observance of safety regulations for treatment of patients with fever of unknown etiology will minimize the number of secondary diseases to a single case or none at all.
Highlights
The 48th Central Research Institute of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, Sergiev Possad, Russian Federation
Objective of the study was to forecast the scale of the outbreak that would emerge after arrival of persons infected with Ebola virus into the Russian Federation
Initial data for the prediction were obtained from retrospective analysis of hemorrhagic Ebola fever outbreaks registered within the period of 1976–2014, and the spread of the virus in the Republic of Guinea and Mali in 2014
Summary
БВВЭ эндемична для территорий Центральной и Западной Африки, расположенных в зоне влажных тропических лесов. Переболевшие БВВЭ, могут передавать вирус при половом контакте до 7 недель после выздоровления [1]. Анализ лабораторно подтвержденных случаев БВВЭ в Республике Гвинее за период с 10 февраля по 25 августа 2014 г. В апреле, после повышения информированности населения и усиления мер противоэпидемического контроля в общинах, число случаев передачи вируса снизилось на 50 % для пациентов, помещенных в медицинские учреждения, но осталась неизменной для негоспитализированных больных. Количество вторичных случаев болезни в больницах снизилось с 35 до 9 % [4, 8]. Более 30 % случаев инфицирования произошло в результате контактов с телом умершего при его обмывании и в процессе похорон. В среднем около 10 % вторичных случаев были обусловлены несоблюдением мер предосторожности при доставке больных в лечебное учреждение [5]
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