Analysis of the global trade network of the chip industry chain: Does the U.S.-China tech war matter?

Abstract

Chip is the “brain” of the information industry and modern manufacturing industry, and supply chain security is the key to the sustainable development of the industrial chain. From the perspective of the industrial chain, this paper selected semiconductor silicon wafers and equipment, integrated circuits, electronic computers, and components as representative commodities in the upstream, midstream, and downstream of the chip industry chain, constructed global trade networks of the chip industry chain, and analyzed the characteristics of the networks and nodes in 2020 and the changes in China's status before and after the China-U.S. tech war. The study results indicate that the network scale and network density of the global trade network of downstream electronic computers and components are higher than those of midstream integrated circuits; the global trade network of upstream semiconductor wafers and equipment has the smallest network scale and network density, and the trade networks of all links show obvious small-world characteristics; The United States ranks first in betweenness centrality of all links, with the strongest control ability and the largest number of trading partners in all links; China has higher betweenness centrality and more trading partners in the global trade network of the two upstream commodities than that of the midstream commodities, and the lowest betweenness centrality in the global trade network of the downstream commodities; The core countries of the chip industry chain are concentrated in southeast Asia, east Asia, central and western Europe, and the United States. China's trade status of semiconductor silicon wafers and integrated circuits has declined significantly during the China-U.S. tech war. The nodes in the chip trade network have good robustness in the face of random attacks and show vulnerability under target attacks. Additionally, the trade network's robustness in the chip industry chain is the strongest for downstream commodities, ranks second for midstream commodities, and is the weakest for upstream commodities. These findings can provide references for ensuring chip supply chain security in China and other trade-participating countries.