Analysis of the factors influencing positive predictive value of noninvasive prenatal testing for chromosome aneuploidies

Abstract

Objective: To investigate the influence of Z-score and different risk factors on positive predictive value (PPV) of noninvasive prenatal testing (NIPT) for chromosome aneuploidies. Methods: A total of 81 838 NIPT samples from January 1, 2016 to May 31, 2021 in the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University were retrospectively analyzed. Invasive prenatal diagnosis was applied to verify the diagnosis of NIPT-positive results and the corresponding PPV was calculated. The PPV of the samples with different Z-score were compared. The women were divided into high-risk group and non-high-risk group: high-risk group (n=39 114) included those with ultrasound soft index abnormalities, advanced maternal age or high risk for maternal serum screening, while non-high-risk group (n=42 724) included those with intermediate risk for maternal serum screening or no indications. The differences of the PPV between these two groups were compared. Finally, the comprehensive influence of Z-score and different risk factors on PPV were analyzed. Results: A total of 471 high-risk cases were detected by NIPT results, including 362 cases of trisomy 21, 77 cases of trisomy 18 and 32 cases of trisomy 13. For trisomy 21, trisomy 18 and trisomy 13, there were 226 cases, 46 cases and 6 cases which were confirmed via invasive prenatal diagnosis respectively. The corresponding PPV were 79.3% (226/285), 82.1% (46/56) and 27.3% (6/22), respectively. PPV of trisomy 21 and trisomy 18 were positively correlated with the corresponding Z-score (r=0.92, 0.62, all P<0.05), while trisomy 13 could not be analyzed due to the small sample size. The PPV of high-risk group was 85.2% (207/243), which was higher than that of the non-high-risk group with PPV of 59.2%(71/120, χ2=30.30, P<0.01). When the Z-score was between 3-<4 and 4-<5, the PPV of the high-risk group were 46.2%(12/26)and 62.5%(15/24) respectively, which were higher than those of the non-high-risk group [16.0%(4/25) and 14.3%(3/21), χ2=4.10, 8.90, all P<0.05]. With the increase of Z-score, there was no significant difference in PPV between the two groups (all P>0.05). Conclusions: The PPV of trisomy 21 and trisomy 18 are positively correlated with Z-score. The PPV of high-risk group is higher than that of non-high-risk group. The combination of Z-score and other risk factors may provide more accurate genetic counseling for those with NIPT positive results.