Abstract
The European Roadmap towards the production of electricity from nuclear fusion foresees the potential availability of nuclear fusion power plants (NFPPs) in the second half of this century. The possible penetration of that technology, typically addressed by using the global energy system EUROFusion TIMES Model (ETM), will depend, among other aspects, on its costs compared to those of the other available technologies for electricity production, and on the future electricity demand. This paper focuses on the ongoing electrification process of the transport sector, with special attention devoted to road transport. A survey on the present and forthcoming technologies, as foreseen by several manufacturers and other models, and an international vehicle database are taken into account to develop the new road transport module, then implemented and harmonized inside ETM. Following three different storylines, the computed results are presented in terms of the evolution of the road transport demand in the next decades, fleet composition and CO 2 emissions. The ETM results are in line with many other studies. On one hand, they highlight, for the European road transport energy consumption pattern, the need for dramatic changes in the transport market, if the most ambitious environmental goals are to be pursued. On the other hand, the results also show that NFPP adoption on a commercial scale could be justified within the current projection of the investment costs, if the deep penetration of electricity in the road transport sector also occurs.
Highlights
According to the European Roadmap towards electricity from fusion [1], the EuropeanDemonstration Fusion Power Reactor (EU-DEMO) reactor project will follow the ITER experiment with the aim of demonstrating the possibility to produce net electricity from nuclear fusion reactions.In parallel, similar efforts to develop demonstration reactors or “fast pathways” to nuclear fusion are taking place in Korea [2], China [3], and in the US [4], where the issues of the lifetime of such a reactor when integrated in the energy grid are under investigation [5]
The results show that nuclear fusion power plants (NFPPs) adoption on a commercial scale could be justified within the current projection of the investment costs, if the deep penetration of electricity in the road transport sector occurs
Energies 2020, 13, 3634 analysis of a nuclear fusion power plant (NFPP) is being investigated based on simplified models of the physics, engineering and economical aspects [6], the EUROfusion socio-economic research on the role of nuclear fusion in the future energy mix aims to investigate the social acceptability of the technology and the conditions for its deployment once it is ready for the energy market, which may affect specific choices during the research and development stage [7]
Summary
According to the European Roadmap towards electricity from fusion [1], the EuropeanDemonstration Fusion Power Reactor (EU-DEMO) reactor project will follow the ITER experiment with the aim of demonstrating the possibility to produce net electricity from nuclear fusion reactions.In parallel, similar efforts to develop demonstration reactors or “fast pathways” to nuclear fusion are taking place in Korea [2], China [3], and in the US [4], where the issues of the lifetime of such a reactor when integrated in the energy grid are under investigation [5]. The EUROfusion TIMES Model (ETM) is the tool used by the EUROfusion Socio-Economic Studies Work Package (WPSES) to explore scenarios for the evolution of the energy demand of the different sectors (agricultural, commercial, industrial, residential and transport) and generation systems, accounting for the production of electricity from fusion reactors. The ETM (global) spatial scale is subdivided into 17 regions, each one incorporating countries with similar conditions in terms of their economic development; the road transport sector update and subsequent scenario analysis presented in this paper is focused on the European region of the model, including the EU28 and the European Free Trade
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