Analysis of the eastern Adriatic sea-level extremes

Abstract

<p>The Adriatic Sea is known to be under a high flooding risk due to both storm surges and meteorological tsunamis, with the latter defined as short-period sea-level oscillations alike to tsunamis but generated by atmospheric processes. In June 2017, a tide-gauge station with a 1-min sampling resolution has been installed at Stari Grad (middle Adriatic Sea), the well-known meteotsunami hot-spot, which is, also, often hit by storm surges. </p><p>Three years of corresponding sea-level measurements were analyzed, and 10 strongest episodes of each of the following extreme types were extracted from the residual series: (1) positive long-period (T > 210 min) extremes; (2) negative long-period (T > 210 min) extremes; (3) short-period (T < 210) extremes. Long-period extremes were defined as situations during which sea level surpasses (is lower than) 99.7 (i.e. 2) percentile of sea level height, and short-period extremes as situations during which variance of short-period sea-level oscillations is higher than 99.4 percentile of total variance[J1]  of short-period series. A strong seasonal signal was detected for all extremes, with most of the positive long-period extremes appearing during November to February, and most of the negative long-period extremes during January to February. As for the short-period extremes, these appear evenly throughout the year, but strongest events seem to appear during May to July.</p><p>All events were associated to characteristic atmospheric situations, using both local measurements of the atmospheric variables, and ERA5 Reanalysis dataset. It was shown that positive low-pass extremes commonly appear during presence of low pressure over the Adriatic associated with strong SE winds (“sirocco”), and negative low-pass extremes are associated to the high atmospheric pressure over the area associated with either strong NE winds (“bora”), or no winds at all. On the other hand, high-pass sea level extremes are noticed during two distinct types of atmospheric situations corresponding to both “bad” (low pressure, strong SE wind) and “nice” (high pressure, no wind) weather.</p><p>It is particularly interesting that short-period extremes, of which strongest are meteotsunamis, are occasionally coincident with positive long-period extremes contributing with up to 50 percent to total sea level height – thus implying existence of a double danger phenomena (meteotsunami + storm surge). </p>