Analysis of the Dynamics of Tuberculosis in Algeria Using a Compartmental VSEIT Model with Evaluation of the Vaccination and Treatment Effects

Abstract

Despite low tuberculosis (TB) mortality rates in China, Europe, and the United States, many countries are still struggling to control the epidemic, including India, South Africa, and Algeria. This study aims to contribute to the body of knowledge on this topic and provide a valuable tool and evidence-based guidance for the Algerian healthcare managers in understanding the spread of TB and implementing control strategies. For this purpose, a compartmental mathematical model is proposed to analyze TB dynamics in Algeria and investigate the vaccination and treatment effects on disease breaks. A qualitative study is conducted to discuss the stability property of both disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium. In order to adopt the proposed model for the Algerian case, we estimate the model parameters using Algerian TB-reported data from 1990 to 2020. The obtained results using the proposed mathematical compartmental model show that the reproduction number (R0) of TB in Algeria is less than one, suggesting that the disease can be eradicated or effectively controlled through a combination of interventions, including vaccination, high-quality treatment, and isolation measures.