Analysis of the Direction and Prediction of Built-Up Land Development in Slawi Sub-district, Tegal Regency, Indonesia in 2045

Abstract

Abstract Slawi Sub-district is characterized by a high population density as it serves as both the capital of Tegal Regency and the central hub of the Tegal Regency government. The large growth of built-up land threatens the balance of the environment and uncontrolled spatial planning. This study aims to predict the development of built-up land in Slawi Subdistrict in 2045 and determine the direction of built-up land development in Slawi Subdistrict in 2007, 2015, 2023, and 2045. The research approach used Geographic Information System with the prediction of Cellular Automata (CA) Markov Chain prediction model. The inputs of the CA Markov model are the driving factors of land cover change consisting of road network, river network, government, settlement, and slope. The results showed that in 2045 the predicted built-up land area was 1,111.72 ha or 71.41% of the total land cover. The development of built-up land in Slawi Sub-district is closely related to the road distribution pattern, where the north and south are influenced by arterial road and rail road, while the east and west are influenced by collector roads.