Analysis of the Digital Divide Using Fuzzy Forecasting

Paweł Ziemba,Jarosław Becker

doi:10.3390/sym11020166

Abstract

In the countries of the former Eastern Bloc (Central and Eastern Europe) belonging to the European Union, a gradual elimination of the technological gap, greater expenditures, competitiveness and productivity can be noticed. In this context, analysis and forecast of the level of accessibility and use of ICT (information and communication technologies) by households in these countries has become interesting. It allows for the selection of digitally excluded regions, or those threatened with this phenomenon in the coming years (2018–2020). To carry out the analysis, a framework based on fuzzy numbers and the NEAT F-PROMETHEE (New Easy Approach To Fuzzy-PROMETHEE) method was developed. The potential of the fuzzy outranking approach taking into account the uncertainty of input data (criteria and preferences) has been demonstrated as an alternative to the IDI (ICT Development Index) methodology widely used in research on regional ICT development based on composite indices. Research has shown that Estonia is the leader in the area of ICT expansion among households, and in the next three years will definitely maintain its dominant position. Slovenia follows shortly after, followed by Latvia. At the end of the ranking were the countries with the largest percentage in Central and Eastern Europe of population excluded digitally or threatened with this phenomenon; these are: Poland, Slovakia, Bulgaria and, in last place, Romania. Within this framework, the robustness of the obtained rankings to change in the degree of uncertainty of preferences was also examined. It turned out that eliminating the uncertainty of preferences resulted in an increase in the uncertainty of the aggregate, fuzzy grades obtained at the output.

Highlights

Modern technologies, innovations, and, in particular, ICT have had a significant impact on the functioning of households, their structure, organisation of professional and private life
Whatare arethe the appropriate parameters? Where does this happen? What is its scope, or how big is the digital divide? In which regions is its level critical, or will be in future? What regions are or will be threatened by this phenomenon? An incentive to further research on digital exclusion may be the search for answers to other questions: What are its causes? What are the effects in the short and long-term? What should be done to alleviate them?
One of Souter’s postulates is that we should concentrate on overall development strategies concerned with reducing poverty, inequality and educational disadvantage that will have most effect on bridging digital divides within societies

Summary

Introduction

Innovations, and, in particular, ICT (information and communication technologies) have had a significant impact on the functioning of households, their structure, organisation of professional and private life. Thanks to ICT, effective tools have been developed to activate unemployed or disabled people, resulting in increased social capital [3]. Solutions in the area of ICT have been used as a tool to reduce the scale of poverty [4,5,6]. More and more households are equipped with various types of information and communication technologies. This is due to an increase in affluence and awareness regarding the benefits of the dissemination of ICT, as well as the decreasing costs of access to these technologies. In [7,8,9], Symmetry 2019, 11, 166; doi:10.3390/sym11020166 www.mdpi.com/journal/symmetry

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Conclusion