Analysis of the COVID-19 epidemic: an additional narrative; an alternative response

Abstract

According to the current prevailing narrative, the virus responsible for the COVID epidemic is exceptionally deadly and contagious possibly as deadly, contagious and dangerous as the 1918 Spanish flu and, in the absence of prolonged lockdown measures, has had the potential to kill a million or more people in the USA alone. At the other end of the explanatory spectrum a counter narrative has greatly minimized the threat posed by COVID and sees little need for major public health intervention or social change. A disciplined scientific analysis suggests an additional narrative that navigates a reasonable path between fear driven prescriptions and dismissive reassurance. This middle ground narrative suggests that the intrinsic deadliness of the COVID virus is above average when compared to many of the seasonal flu viruses of the past decade, but similar to that of the 20172018 flu virus, which killed an estimated 61,000 people in the USA. It also emphasizes that the intrinsic deadliness of many current social arrangements has contributed to COVID deaths and that there is need for major social change. This article suggests that neither the narrative of fear that prescribes excessive social control, or a narrative of dismissive reassurance that disregards need for fundamental social change, are based on good science. The article raises concerns that the prolonged lockdown/re-lockdown approach is misguided and likely to cause an enormous number of unnecessary deaths both a greater number of cumulative COVID deaths, as well as deaths of despair, deaths from worsening poverty and hunger, and deaths from inadequate attention for non-COVID health issues, particularly in disadvantaged communities and countries. An alternative response to the COVID epidemic is presented.