Analysis of the characteristics and causes of city gas explosion accidents based on DT-AR algorithm

Abstract

 In order to effectively prevent and control accidents, it is essential to trace back the causes of gas explosions in cities. The DT-AR(decision tree-association rule) algorithm is proposed as a quantitative analysis of gas accident features and causality. First, 210 gas explosion accident investigation reports were taken as samples. The gas accident causation system is divided into three aspects, including environmental factors, management factors and physical factors. Management factors were sorted into organizational-level and individual-level factors from the investigation reports. Second, the CART decision tree model was used to compare location features, organizational causality features, and individual causality features of the piped and bottled gas accidents, and a decision tree model with the gas system fault site as the root node was built to filter the key feature variables. In order to reveal factor correlations and deep-level causation, the Apriori algorithm is used to mine accident association rules. The combinations on the branches of the decision tree are used as constraints to filter the critical causality rule, which improves the efficiency of association rule screening and enhances prediction accuracy. The results demonstrate that the DT-AR algorithm can evaluate the importance of variables, quickly locate effective combinations of factors, and mine the complete causal chain. The association rule is screened based on the constraint of the key element combination of the decision tree, which compensates for the low efficiency of the Apriori algorithm for association rule mining. In addition, the accident-caused excavation results provide an effective path for gas companies, outsourced service companies and administrative departments to implement gas safety chain supervision, which can address the problem of gas accident safety management failures and provide decision support for accident prevention.