Analysis of the change in the structure of the Japanese power supply using the GTAP-E-power model

Abstract

This study analyzes the effect of the change in the structure of the Japanese power supply, which disaggregates the power sector based on the GTAP-E model framework. We analyze the impact of the change in the power structure on Japan’s macroeconomy, power sector, and industry by comparing the results of four scenarios. In our simulations, which are divided into two periods, shocks are introduced to the growth rate in real GDP, labor force, population, and Japanese zero-emission power supply; nuclear power, hydropower, wind power, solar power, and other types of power. First, simulations from 2011 to 2018 were performed to update the GTAP-E-Power database. Next, simulations from 2019 to 2030 were performed for policy scenarios with different growth rates of zero-emission power supply in Japan. The simulation results show that if Japan maintains the same growth rate of zero-emission power supply as that of the Sustainable Development Scenario of the World Energy Outlook 2019, the share of zero-emission power supply in 2030 will achieve the government’s target. The simulation results also show that an increase in zero-emission power supply has a positive effect on the Japanese trade balance.