Analysis of the causal effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on parcel delivery: The case of Belo Horizonte, Brazil

Abstract

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on e-commerce is evident and well-reported. However, few studies have measured the effect of restrictive measures on e-commerce. Therefore, this article aims to explore the causal effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on parcel deliveries. For this purpose, different techniques (interrupted time series analysis, counterfactual analysis, and structural equation modelling) were used to verify to what extent the number of cases and deaths from COVID-19 and the rigour of the restriction measures (measured by the stringency index) increased parcel deliveries in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. The results confirm the causal effect of the stringency index that positively influences parcel deliveries. The marginal effect of the stringency index on parcel deliveries was 5.44 deliveries per day during the pandemic compared to before the pandemic. This result means that each unit of stringency index increases the number of parcel deliveries by 5.44. The effects vary depending on the technique used; however, all showed the contribution of stringency index on parcel deliveries.