Analysis of the carbon emissions trend in European Union. A decomposition and decoupling approach

Abstract

This work is aimed to investigate the carbon emissions trend in the European Union. Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index and Tapio's methodology are used for decomposing the carbon emissions and investigating the decoupling factors respectively. Seven indexes are identified, namely carbon intensity of the energy sector, energy consumption structure, energy intensity, climatic factor, Gross Domestic Product per Capita, population distribution, and population evolution. These indexes are then grouped in three macro-categories, specifically technical factors, climatic effect, and socio-economic factors. The study covers the period 1995–2019 and considers EU 27 countries at an aggregate and individual level. Carbon emissions in EU 27 reduced of 689 Mt from 1995 to 2019. Technical factors are responsible for a decrease of 1723 Mt, the climatic effect determines a reduction of 362 Mt, whereas socio-economic factors cause an increase of 1397 Mt. The Strong Decoupling status is achieved in EU 27 in the period 1995–2019 with a decoupling index equal to −0.4. This means that carbon emissions reduced while Gross Domestic Product increased. To provide more precise insights, the paper also presents analyses at individual country level and the splitting in five temporal sub-periods.