ANALYSIS OF THE BRI AND CHINA’S OFDI IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Abstract

The “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) has been launched by the Chinese government in 2013. The aim was to stimulate cross-border economic development in massive geographical areas covering Asia, Oceania, Europe, Africa, and Latin America which accounts for 80% and 40% of the world population and gross domestic product (GDP), respectively. The BRI has devised an extension of the “going global” strategy to reconfigure China’s overseas sector in order to extend its spillovers, and create more development opportunities for participating countries. In practice, cross-border infrastructure was a comprehensive role to reduce transportation cost; however, the BRI was vast by nature that includes financial support, policy cooperation, investment, trade facilitation, and people-to-people exchanges for the humanitarian strategy. Against this backdrop, the overarching objective of this study was to analyze the impact of the BRI and Chinese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on the bilateral trade between China and Sub-Saharan Africa countries. The investigation was carried out using a trade gravity model, balanced panel dataset, and multivariate regression estimation strategy for robustness checks covering 16 years. The result showed that Chinese OFDI, home, and host country’s GDP and GDP per capita income variables have a positive and statistically significant impact on the bilateral trade. Moreover, the BRI has explained positively on the bilateral trade; however, it does not have enough evidence to stimulate significantly, and it usually takes a long time for the effects of the BRI investment on trade and OFDI. The study also found that geographical distance and official exchange rates have explained negatively and statistically significant impact on the bilateral trade.