Abstract
Global mean precipitation changes due to climate change were previously shown to be relatively small and well constrained by the energy budget. However, local precipitation changes can be much more significant. In this paper we propose that for large enough scales, for which the water budget is closed (precipitation [P] roughly equals evaporation [E]), changes in P approach the small global mean value. However, for smaller scales, for which P and E are not necessarily equal and convergence of water vapor still plays a role, changes in P could be much larger due to dynamical contributions. Using 40 years of two reanalysis data sets, 39 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and additional numerical simulations, we identify the scale of transition in the importance of the different terms in the water budget to precipitation to be ~3,500–4,000 km and demonstrate its relation to the spatial scale of precipitation changes under climate change.
Highlights
Under climate change, in addition to the expected changes in surface temperature, precipitation is expected to change, with potentially significant implications for society
Using 40 years of two reanalysis data sets, 39 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and additional numerical simulations, we identify the scale of transition in the importance of the different terms in the water budget to precipitation to be ~3,500–4,000 km and demonstrate its relation to the spatial scale of precipitation changes under climate change
Using reanalysis data sets, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and additional numerical simulations, we identify the characteristic scale of the hydrological cycle to be ~3,500–4,000 km and demonstrate its relation to the spatial scale of precipitation changes under climate change
Summary
In addition to the expected changes in surface temperature, precipitation is expected to change, with potentially significant implications for society. The global mean precipitation response to warming is predicted to be lower (2–3%/K) than the expected by the Clausius‐Clapeyron relation (Allen & Ingram, 2002; Andrews et al, 2010; Andrews & Forster, 2010; Held & Soden, 2006). This relatively small precipitation response is consistent with the concept of an energetic control of precipitation, which states that precipitation must change in such a way that the atmospheric energy budget remains in balance (Allen & Ingram, 2002; O'Gorman et al, 2012; Pendergrass & Hartmann, 2014). On a global scale, precipitation changes due to any driver must be constrained by the energy budget
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