Analysis of the association between meteorological variables and mortality in the elderly applied to different climatic characteristics of the State of São Paulo, Brazil

Abstract

With the rising trends in elderly populations around the world, there is a growing interest in understanding how climate variability is related to the health of this population group. Therefore, we analyzed the associations between mortality in the elderly due to cardiovascular (CVD) and respiratory diseases (RD) and meteorological variables, for three cities in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil: Campos do Jordao, Ribeirao Preto, and Santos, all in different subtropical regions, from 1996 to 2017. The main objective was to verify how these distinct subtropical climates impact elderly mortality differently. We applied the autoregressive model integrated with moving average (ARIMA) and the principal component analysis (PCA), in order to evaluate statistical associations. Results showed CVD as a major cause of mortality, particularly in the cold period, when a high mortality rate is also observed due to RD. The mortality rate was higher in Campos do Jordao and lower in Santos. In Campos do Jordao, results indicate an increased probability of mortality from CVD and RD due to lower temperatures. In Ribeirao Preto, the lower relative humidity may be related to the increase in CVD and RD deaths. This study emphasizes that, even among subtropical climates, there are significant differences on how climate impacts human health, which can assist decision-makers in the implementation of mitigating and adaptive measures.