Analysis of the annual number of tropical cyclones over Japan using the extreme value theory

Abstract

We predicted the extreme value of the annual number of typhoons, tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific, approaching typhoons, and landing typhoons for 1951–2019 over Japan and the minimum central pressure for 1987–2020 using the extreme value theory. The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was used to fit the extreme indices. Various diagnostic plots for assessing the accuracy of the GEV model fitted to the annual number of typhoons, approaching typhoons, and landing typhoons are shown, and all four diagnostic plots support the fitted GEV model. The shape parameter ξ for the annual number of typhoons and approaching typhoons is negative, and the number of typhoons has a finite upper limit. The calculated upper limits were 44.5 and 23.2 for the annual number of typhoons and approaching typhoons, respectively. However, ξ in the number of landing typhoons was zero; therefore, the number of landing typhoons did not have a finite upper limit, and there was a possibility that a significant risk would occur. The number of typhoons increased for 1951–2019. The minimum central pressure of typhoons estimated using geostationary satellite images decreased for 1987–2020, and the number of strong typhoons increased. The annual number of violent typhoons ( 54 m/s) increased in the 2010s. The calculated limit of the minimum central pressure of the typhoon is 877 hPa. When the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index is positive, more violent typhoons tend to occur.