Analysis of the Accuracy of the Modified CT Severity Index in Predicting Clinical Outcomes in Acute Pancreatitis: A Cross-Sectional Study.

Abstract

To evaluate the accuracy of the modified CT severity index (MCTSI) in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis and to prognosticate the clinical outcomes. The study was conducted at a tertiary health center between January 2021 and June 2023. A total of 150 consecutive patients with clinical/laboratory features suggestive of acute pancreatitis were included in the study and underwent a contrast-enhanced CT scan within 24 hours of admission. Based on their MCTSI score, these patients had conservative or surgical/endoscopic treatment. Clinical outcomes were assessed in terms of recovery, development of complications, or death. The receiver operating characteristic curve and descriptive statistics were computed to determine the sensitivity and specificity. The data were analyzed using SPSS version 16 software (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL), and an attempt was made to evaluate the accuracy of MCTSI in predicting these clinical outcomes. The mean age of patients in our study was 49.21 ± 11.02 years. Out of the 150 included patients, 103 were men and 47 were women. Compared to 11.68% of severe acute pancreatitis patients who died, 88.32% recovered. The area under the curve was determined as 0.865, based on which the MCTSI score predicted acute pancreatitis clinical outcome with 64% sensitivity and 92% specificity. The MCTSI demonstrated value in predicting clinical outcomes with a p-value of 0.043 ± 0.012 (p < 0.05) in the recovered patients while p = 0.032 ± 0.012 for patients who succumbed. The p-value for MCTSI in predicting complications was p = 0.0012 ± 0.0008 (p < 0.05). Our study was able to demonstrate the high level of accuracy of the MCTSI score in predicting complications and clinical outcomes, especially in patients with severe acute pancreatitis. The MCTSI serves as a valuable asset in the preliminary evaluation of acute pancreatitis, thereby facilitating appropriate management.