Analysis of temporal fluctuations in numbers of sexually mature Anastrepha ludens females over an extensive citrus area in northeastern Mexico

Abstract

AbstractThe Mexican fruit fly, Anastrepha ludens Loew (Diptera: Tephritidae), is one of the most important pests in citrus‐growing areas in Mexico. In this study, we analyzed the temporal fluctuation of sexually mature females of A. ludens populations with respect to the availability of commercial hosts and climatic factors, as well as population data of females over an extensive citrus area in northeastern Mexico. The numbers of mature females were treated as proportions and analyzed with generalized linear mixed models with a binomial error distribution. Results revealed positive effects on proportions of mature females when commercial hosts (Valencia orange and grapefruit) were available at both medium and high levels, whereas negative effects on proportions were observed when commercial hosts were scarcely available. Monthly analyses indicated positive trends on proportion in March, April, October, and November, whereas negative trends were seen in January and June. A low capture of mature females during the late summer and the onset of winter suggests transitional phenological processes across the year. Overall, no relationships were observed between proportions with temperature and the total number of females; however, a positive relationship was observed between proportion and rainfall. These findings provide insight into the reproductive phenology of A. ludens with practical implications for fruit sampling, as well as for the autocidal or chemical control in an areawide integrated pest management (AW‐IPM) approach in citrus‐growing areas of northeastern Mexico.