Analysis of Temperature and Thermal Stress for a Solar Power Tower Molten Salt Receiver under Multi-Source Uncertainties

Abstract

Although uncertainties such as solar radiation and material properties are generally involved in the solar receiver design process, current studies in the solar receiver field are based on deterministic models and do not incorporate these uncertainties into the design process. In this paper, based on a coupled deterministic thermal–structural model and an uncertainty analysis model, an analysis of temperature and thermal stress was conducted for a solar power tower (SPT) molten salt receiver under multi-source uncertainties to investigate the dispersions of responses. The results demonstrated that the maximum temperature inside the tube wall under multi-source uncertainties ranged from 847 K to 895 K, with an expectation of 871 K and a standard deviation of 8 K, and the maximum thermal stress ranged from 173 MPa to 245 MPa, with an expectation of 204 MPa and a standard deviation of 12 MPa, both of which had severer probabilities than the deterministic results (871 K and 204 MPa) and may cause failure in the receiver. Furthermore, the results of the global sensitivity analysis indicated that the peak incident solar flux was the most sensitive, and the specific heat of the tube material was the least sensitive to the maximum temperature and thermal stress of the tube wall. These results are beneficial to provide additional reliability and confidence in the temperature and thermal stress evaluation process of solar receiver tubes.