ANALYSIS OF STRUCTURAL SHIFTS IN THE EAEU ECONOMY USING INDIVIDUAL INDICATORS OF STRUCTURAL SHIFTS

Abstract

The functioning of the Common Economic Space (CES) and the Eurasian Economic Union on the territory of the countries included in the regional association presupposes the implementation by countries and the Eurasian Economic Commission of a coordinated policy in the economic sphere. This policy has an impact on structural changes in the economies of countries and the regional union as a whole. The results of these changes can be assessed using indicators of structural changes, which assess structural changes in individual elements or groups of the population (sectors of the economy) or shifts in all elements of the population. The second indicators characterize the intensity of differences between the two structures as a whole. In this article, we focused our attention on the analysis of structural changes in individual sectors of the economy of the EAEU and the countries included in the regional association. The top five largest sectors of the EAEU GDP in 2022 included: 1) manufacturing industry (13.3%); 2) mining and quarrying (12.3%); 3) wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (11.7); 4) transactions with real estate (9.3%); 5) public administration and defense, compulsory social security (5.9%). At the same time, the change in their share in GDP compared to 2011 was in different directions - the share of trade decreased significantly, while the other four industries increased, including significantly in the mining industry. The list of the largest sectors of the Russian economy, their place in the country’s GDP, as well as the direction of change in their share coincides with the economy of the EAEU as a whole. In other EAEU countries the situation is different. Calculations of partial indicators of relative structural changes, calculated by the chain method, showed significant changes in certain periods, including so-called “jumps”, representing a change in the shares of industries in GDP by 50 percentage points. and more. In particular, jumps were observed in Armenia in three industries, in Belarus - in two industries, in Kazakhstan - in one industry, in Kyrgyzstan - in two industries, with two different directions in one industry. There were no horse races in Russia. However, significant changes in the share of GDP were observed in the mining and quarrying industries, financial and insurance activities, the provision of other types of services, administrative activities and additional services in this area. Calculations of partial indicators of relative structural changes calculated using the base method also showed their noticeable changes in relation to the base period. In particular, construction and trade were characterized by a decrease in the share of the EAEU GDP in 2022, amounting to 27 and 21 percentage points. responsibly. At the same time, the share of a number of industries increased: healthcare and social services (+28 p.p.), manufacturing (+10 p.p.). Some countries saw more significant changes, including spikes.