Abstract
The aim of this research is the detection and analysis of existing trends in the Meta River, Colombia, based on the streamflow records from seven gauging stations in its main course, for the period between June 1983 to July 2019. The Meta River is one of the principal branches of the Orinoco River, and it has a high environmental and economic value for this South American country. The methods employed for the trend detection and quantification were the Mann–Kendall (MK) test, the modified MK (MMK) test, and the Sen’s slope (SS) estimator. Statistically significant trends (at a 95% level of confidence) were detected in more than 30% of the 105 evaluated datasets. The results from the MK test indicate the presence of statistically significant downward trends in the upstream stations and upward trends in the downstream stations, with the latter presenting steep positive slopes. The findings of this study are valuable assets for water resources management and sustainable planning in the Meta River Basin.
Highlights
The availability of water resources for agriculture, industry, and cities is fundamental to the welfare and sustainable development of modern human societies
The results indicate that, at a 5% level of significance and for both MK and modified MK (MMK) tests, four stations present a significant trend for this feature: Puente Lleras, Humapo, Aguaverde, and Aceitico
Results from the trend analysis for the minimum annual streamflow provided in Table 4 indicate that five of the stations present a significant trend at a 95% confidence level for this feature: Cabuyaro, Humapo, Puerto Texas, Santa María, and Aguaverde
Summary
The availability of water resources for agriculture, industry, and cities is fundamental to the welfare and sustainable development of modern human societies. Among these resources, rivers provide multiple benefits to humans, such as hydropower, waterways, recreation, and fishery. Detecting variability and trends in river streamflow time-series are vital for the appropriate management and planning of these water resources, as it diminishes the risks and detrimental effects associated with wrongfully assuming stationarity in hydrologic design. Some of these possible effects include: underestimating design flow rates for hydraulic structures, assigning water rights beyond
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