Analysis of speed reductions and crash risk of aggressive drivers during emergent pre-crash scenarios at unsignalized intersections

Abstract

Aggressive driver behavior (ADB) is often linked with road crashes, especially during crash imminent situations. Previous studies demonstrated that ADB was positively correlated with collision risk; however, this relationship has not quantified evidently. This study aimed to analyze drivers’ collision risk and speed reduction behavior during an emergent pre-crash scenario (such as a conflict encroaching into an unsignalized intersection at different critical time gaps) using a driving simulator. The effect of ADB on crash risk is investigated using the time to collision (TTC). Further, drivers’ collision evasive behavior is analyzed using speed reduction time (SRT) survival probabilities. Fifty-eight Indian drivers are identified as aggressive, moderately aggressive, and, non-aggressive based on aggressive indicators such as vehicle kinematics (percentage of the time spent in speeding and rapid accelerations, maximum brake pressure, etc.). Two separate models are built to analyze ADB effects on TTC and SRT using a Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) and a Weibull Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model, respectively. From the results, it can be observed that aggressive drivers’ TTC and SRT are reduced by 82% and 38%, respectively. Compared to a 7 sec conflict approaching time gap, TTC is reduced by 18%, 39%, 51%, and 58% for 6 sec, 5 sec, 4 sec, and 3 sec conflict approaching time gaps, respectively. The estimated SRT survival probabilities for aggressive, moderately aggressive and non-aggressive drivers are 0%, 3% and 68% at 3 sec of conflict approaching time gap, respectively. SRT survival probability increased by 25% for matured drivers and decreased by 48% for drivers who tend to engage in frequent speeding. Important implications of the study findings are discussed.