Analysis of spatiotemporal changes in cultural heritage protected cities and their influencing factors: Evidence from China

Abstract

In the Anthropocene, it is essential to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics and causes of land use and landscape pattern changes in cultural heritage protected cities (CHPCs) to promote the sustainable development of CHPCs. Here we use PLUS model to explore and forecast the spatiotemporal changes from 2000 to 2060 in Pingyao, Gucheng, She and Langzhong, where the Four Ancient Cities of China are located. First, we found the spatiotemporal changes and the driving factors with land use transfer matrix, landscape metrics and a random forest analysis strategy. Furthermore, we simulated and predicted the spatiotemporal patterns in 2030 and 2060 by applying a CA model and landscape indexes, testing the carbon peak and carbon neutralization target achieved. The results demonstrate that urban expansion leads to an increase tendency in land use diversity and landscape heterogeneity, as well as adversely affecting the landscape pattern of ecological land. Altitude, socioeconomic conditions, and policies regarding the development and utilization of land resources all significantly impact the four cities’ spatiotemporal changes. Both the land use pattern and the landscape pattern will become more complex significantly in the future. This study offers a new insight to compare and analyze the spatiotemporal changes of different CHPCs.