Analysis of spatio-temporal drivers and convergence characteristics of urban development in Africa

Abstract

Understanding the trajectory of urbanization and its drivers is particularly important in the new urban agenda set out under sustainable development goal 11 on cities and human settlements. This is particularly relevant in Africa, where the urban transition process is advancing faster than anywhere else in the world. In this regard, we examine (i) the Spatio-temporal patterns of urbanization, (ii) the drivers of convergence behaviors among African countries. The empirical analysis reveals that there is a significant spatial correlation in Africa’s urbanization trajectory. There is also evidence that both σ-convergence and β-convergence exist among our panel members over 2000–2018. The speed of convergence increases substantially when the role of socio-economic triggers of urbanization is considered. Moreover, among the determinants of conditional β-convergence, we show that natural resource rents and population contribute to urbanization significantly, while the effect of trade openness is insignificant. We also find that the relationship between urbanization and growth is inverted U-shaped, indicating that urbanization may decrease once a critical tipping point is breached. We demonstrate that accounting for spatial factors is essential to capture key features of urban evolution in Africa.