Analysis of spatio-temporal changes in net primary productivity and their driving factors in ecological functional areas of the Yellow River Basin

Abstract

The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is an important region for both ecological and economic growth in China, and a healthy and stable ecological environment is fundamental to achieving high-quality development. Investigating the spatio-temporal changs of vegetation carbon sinks in the YRB is necessary to improve understanding of the regional carbon cycle. This study analyzed the YRB using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. The basin was divided into sections based on ecological function regionalization schemes. We applied Theil-Sen median trend analysis and Spearman correlation analysis, along with the lasso regression model, to examine the NPP's temporal and spatial patterns and its driving factors in these regions. The objective was to examine the NPP’ s temporal and spatial patterns and its driving factors in these regions, identifying commonalities within regions and differences between regions, while analyzing in a targeted manner the lack of vegetation carbon sequestration in ecological areas. This study highlighted the importance of ecological engineering in ecological civilization and carbon neutrality, providing scientific theoretical support and a decision-making basis for the realization of carbon neutrality. The research results indicate significant upward trends (p<0.001) in both the average annual NPP (AANPP) growth rate (57.98%) and the total annual NPP (TANPP) growth rate (41.9%) in the YRB from 2001 to 2020. The multi-year average NPP (MYANPP) exhibit a spatial distribution with high values in the south and low values in the north. The spatial distribution of NPP exhibits notable spatial aggregation and heterogeneity, where regions demonstrating improvement trends constitute 93.01% of the area, and approximately 79.73% of this region displays low volatility. A high-value area is concentrated in the Agroecological Zone of the Fenwei Basin (I-11), the Loess Plateau Agriculture and Grassland Ecological Zone (I-12), and the Qinba Mountains Deciduous and Evergreen Broad-leaved Forest Ecological Zone (I-15), with significant spatial differences. Temperature, precipitation, and forests are the foremost elements affecting NPP in the YRB, exhibiting positive correlations. Conversely, farmland displays negative correlations. Overall, NPP shows an increasing trend in all ecological function areas, and the NPP of the YRB shows a trend of improvement as a whole, as the ecological environment of the YRB has improved significantly.